US intelligence reports indicate that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. This comes as the Trump administration continues efforts to negotiate a deal with Tehran. Several US officials familiar with the latest intelligence have shared this with CNN.
Iran warns it may change nuclear weapons stance
A Shift from Diplomacy to Force
Israel preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, US officials say, could mark a dramatic shift away from diplomacy. The Trump administration has focused on negotiations, but an Israeli strike risks triggering a broader conflict in the Middle East. This shift follows rising tensions after the 2023 Gaza war.
Final Decision Not Yet Made
Although intelligence shows signs of preparation, US officials say Israeli leaders have not made a final decision. Ongoing discussions in Washington highlight differing views about the likelihood of Israeli action. Israel is watching the US-Iran negotiations closely and may respond based on the outcome.
Key Concerns over Uranium Stockpiles
Sources familiar with US intelligence state that Israel preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities becomes more likely if Iran keeps its uranium reserves. Israel considers these stockpiles a serious threat. If a US-Iran deal allows Iran to retain any uranium, Israel may act unilaterally.
Signals from Israeli Leadership
Public and private statements from Israeli officials reinforce the warning signs. Intercepted military communication and recent air force drills point to preparation. According to US officials, these could be a real threat or an attempt to pressure Iran into compliance.
US Monitoring but Staying Hands-Off
US intelligence agencies continue to track Israel’s military activities. Still, US officials say the administration is unlikely to support a strike unless Iran provokes a major crisis. Without US refueling capabilities and advanced bunker-busting bombs, Israel faces operational limits.
Israel May Strike Without US Help
Despite these limitations, Israel preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, US officials say, may proceed without US assistance. A senior Israeli source told CNN that if the Trump administration signs a “bad deal,” Israel would consider acting alone.
Stalled Talks Over Enrichment
US-Iran negotiations have stalled over uranium enrichment. The US insists Iran must completely halt enrichment. Iran claims enrichment is its legal right under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called the US demand a “big mistake” and sees no positive outcome from the talks.
Israel’s Strategic Dilemma
Israel now faces a critical decision. If the US reaches an agreement with Iran that Israel cannot accept, a military response becomes more likely. As negotiations drag on, Israel preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, US officials say, is increasingly possible.
Strike Would Only Delay Iran’s Program
US intelligence assessments suggest that even if Israel strikes, the damage would only delay Iran’s nuclear program. Israeli leaders know this, but believe delay is better than allowing the program to continue unchallenged.
Risk of Regional Conflict
An Israeli attack would significantly depart from President Trump’s current diplomatic approach. It could also escalate tensions and spark a broader conflict in the Middle East. The US has been working to avoid such a situation, especially since the Gaza conflict began in 2023.
Uncertainty Over Israel’s Final Decision
Despite growing concerns, US officials say it is unclear whether Israel has made a final decision. There is considerable debate within the US government about the likelihood of an Israeli strike. Israel will likely base its decision on how it perceives US negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program.
Rising Probability of an Israeli Attack
A US intelligence source noted that the likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites has risen in recent months. This is especially true if the US and Iran reach an agreement that does not eliminate Iran’s uranium stockpiles, a major concern for Israel.
Signals from Israel and Military Preparations
Israeli officials have publicly and privately signaled their intention to strike. Additionally, intercepted Israeli communications and military movements suggest preparations for a potential attack. Some experts believe these activities might be a warning to Iran, urging it to comply with Israeli demands on its nuclear program.
US Monitoring the Situation
The US is closely monitoring the situation and has ramped up intelligence gathering. However, sources from the Trump administration say the US will not assist Israel in striking Iran’s nuclear facilities unless Tehran provokes a major response.
Israel’s Need for US Assistance
Israel cannot destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure without US help, including midair refueling and specialized bombs to penetrate deep underground facilities. However, Israeli officials have stated that they may take unilateral military action if they deem a potential US-Iran deal unacceptable.
Stalled US-Iran Negotiations
US negotiations with Iran are currently stalled over the issue of uranium enrichment. The US demands that any deal prevent uranium enrichment, which can be used for nuclear weapons. In contrast, Iran insists it has the right to enrich uranium under international law, particularly the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Iran’s Position on Enrichment
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said he does not expect US negotiations to succeed. He described the US pressure on Iran to stop uranium enrichment as a “big mistake.” Iran has repeatedly emphasized its right to enrich uranium under international agreements.
Israel’s Dilemma
As negotiations continue, Israel faces a tough decision. Analysts believe that Israel will take military action if it feels the US and Iran reach a deal that Israel finds unacceptable. While the US focuses on diplomacy, time is running out to achieve a successful agreement.
Possible Israeli Strike in 2025
US intelligence agencies had warned earlier that Israel would likely attempt to strike Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025. Israel has long maintained that only military action can halt Iran’s nuclear program. However, such a strike would only delay Iran’s progress, not end it.
Implications for Middle East Stability
The coming weeks will be critical in determining if Israel moves forward with military action and if US-Iran negotiations progress. The outcome will have lasting consequences for Middle East stability and global security.
Key Points:
- Israel may strike Iran’s nuclear facilities if US-Iran negotiations fail.
- Israel believes Iran is vulnerable and is considering military action.
- The US is monitoring the situation but will not assist Israel unless provoked.
- Iran’s uranium enrichment remains a sticking point in negotiations.
- Israel’s decision will depend on the outcome of US-Iran negotiations.
